Challenge

When Sullivan County officials learned that the New York State Legislature was in the process of selecting a county to award a coveted casino license, they sought the expertise of Capacity Consulting. The task was to evaluate whether Sullivan County met the three key criteria set by the state government, which focused on the potential economic impact of a casino development.

The state officials in Albany had established specific criteria centered around the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) and the velocity of money, aiming to determine where casino dollars would generate the most significant economic benefit. The challenge was to assess which county, not which specific casino, would provide the greatest advantage to the state as a host for one or more casinos.

Process

The Strategic Geographic and Economic Advantage Analysis conducted by Capacity Consulting compared Sullivan, Albany, Orange, Rensselaer, Tioga, and Ulster Counties to determine which location would provide the greatest benefit to New York State as a casino site. The analysis focused on three main legislative objectives, while also considering indirect and ancillary factors. The study examined 26 sub-sections, including labor force, wages, vacancy rates, taxes, education, crime, traffic density, and travel distance, to measure and, when possible, rank each of the six counties based on their potential benefit to the state.

While some ancillary factors, such as traffic, were considered, the primary legislative objectives centered on evaluating each county’s “benefit to the state of New York” through its marginal propensity to consume and velocity of money. In essence, the analysis aimed to identify the county whose residents would likely experience the most significant income boost from a casino and spend it the quickest—fulfilling the intent of the legislation and maximizing the state’s overall economic benefit.

Solution

Sullivan County was able to present a strong case, winning out over the other contenders. Albany granted Sullivan County the right to have a casino in December 2014, Sullivan County accepted Resorts World’s proposal in 2015, and Resorts World Catskills opened in Thompson, NY, in February 2018. 

Impact

The impact of Capacity Consulting’s study on Sullivan County and the surrounding region has been profound. The analysis played a crucial role in securing the casino development, which in turn sparked a wave of additional projects and investments. As a result, Sullivan County’s unemployment rate plummeted from a peak of 10.7% to a low of 3.3% before the COVID-19 pandemic, and further declined to 2.5% afterward. Per capita income saw a significant rise, increasing from $38,207 in 2014 to $54,451 in 2022. Alongside these improvements, every other key economic indicator in the county showed marked growth, underscoring the transformative effect of the study on the region’s economic landscape.